The Notebook

I just finished watching the Notebook, a film based on a novel written by Nicholas Sparks, which i never read it before.

The film was played by lead actor Ryan Gosling as Noah Calhoun & actress Rachel Mc Adams as Allie Hamilton.

I know its a total cliche to say this but...

OH MY GOD!!! this movie is one of the most romantic movies i have seen

Its about love, memories & death..

There is no words can or will describe the love that is shared between these two characters. The movie was really sad & i was very moved by it. I was crying my eyes out throughout the whole movie.... especially at the end :(

This movie even won the best kissing scene at the MTV movie awards 2005 :D

Ryan Gosling --> he's super HOT innit?!

Rachel McAdams --> remember the Queen B*tch from the mean girls? oh yes that's her, except that she's brunette in this movie instead of blonde :D

And yes, they even make a hot couple on & off-screen too :D

GAHHH!! you people gotta watch it!! and check out the notebook trailer

Otanjou-bi Omedetou Gozaimasu Teteh-Chan! hohoho

Happy 15th birthday to my sweet lil' annoying sister, Qurratul Ain Aqilah!!

Since we all are in low cash right now (biasa alum lagi terima gaji & my allowance is not out yet...), so we decided to have a small, simple celebration for her in the hospital with my dad.

One of my sister-in-laws, Mega, posing for her new hair style that i just curled last night! And she was very kindly to lend her Amah to cook mee hoon goreng & nasi goreng kampong. Very sedap one!!!

Three of my very 'Lating' nieces (L to R: Naqibah, Basyirah, & Batrisyah) and yes they even insisted me to get their hair done too just like their mommy!

So I bought my lil sister a Royal Chocolate Cheese Cake from MakCik bakery shop.

See how packed the room was filled with my siblings, nieces & only one nephew!

The b'day girl was so hyper after she ate a big slice of the cake & she was so high that she finally took off her tudung! See how boyish she looks like! hahaha

I gave her a 2 GB pendrive for her present that she's been whining to have it since last month..

Once again, Happy Sweet 15 sis. Hope you do well in your upcoming PMB exam & please try to cut down yourself from watching those japanese animated series bah for the mean time!
I love you sis ;)



Do guys see any resemblance? :D

The different sorts of men...

Ada this one hilarious "forwarded e-mail" from a novel I'm reading.. I've posted it up arah my blog plang, but I wanna share with y'all.. Hehehe :D


Why ladies today are still single??

1. The nice men are ugly.
2. The handsome men are not nice.
3. The handsome and nice men are gay.
4. The handsome, nice and heterosexual men are married.
5. The men who are not so handsome, but are nice men, have no money.
6. The men who are not so handsome, but are nice men with money think we are only after their money.
7. The handsome men without money are after our money.
8. The handsome men, who are not so nice and somewhat heterosexual, don't think we are beautiful enough.
9. The men who think we are beautiful, that are heterosexual, somewhat nice and have money are cowards.
10. The men who are somewhat handsome, somewhat nice and have some money and thank God are heterosexual, are shy and never make the first move!!
11. The men who never make the first move, automatically lose interest in us when we take the initiative.

Source: Warna Hati by Meen Zulaikha.

Latest Movies..

Good Afternoon peeps!!!

:D

Now i'm off my duty from looking after my dad in the hospital, it's my sister's turn, after all she's off from working today..

So I'm posting this right from my home where i really, really really miss it so much!!!
Because the wireless connection at home is freaking better than those in the hospital which is super-duper SLOW because I have to share the free wireless with everyone else there!!!

Now i can resume & continue downloading the latest movies that i haven't watch yet:
Doomsday
Forgetting Sarah Marshall
The Other Boleyn Girl
The Ruins
Family Guy The Movie
Definitely Maybe
The Happening


I've already watched the 1st three movies & the rest i'm still downloading them..

Doomsday:
Not a bad movie, i rate it 8/10. It's about Scotland that had been infected with Reaper virus. Don't worry, no Zombies this time unlike other movies such as 28 days later & 28 weeks later. The action scenes were amazing but abit gruesome but i enjoyed it so far :D Click this if you wanna know more info about this movie

Check out Doomsday's trailer --->

Forgetting Sarah Marshall:
This is one hell of a very funny movie!!! I give 10/10!!!! It's a romantic comedy about this guy name Peter Bretter (acted by Jason Segel, remember the big guy from “How I met your mother”?). He’s a composer & he has a steady girlfriend of 5 years who happened to be a famous tv Star, Sarah Marshall (Kristen Bell), from her drama show Crime Scene.

But suddenly she dumped him out of the blue moon. He was devastated & letf heartbroken, so he tried to get over her by having sex with women he barely knows. But of course the pain didn’t magically disappear just like that after sleeping with random women! And so he decided to go to Hawaii to clear his head off but instead he met Sarah & his new British-rocker boyfriend that she have been having affair with behind Peter’s back..

Okay, okay, I wont spoil any further now.. bah go watch this movie.. It is SUPER FUNNY but a bit sexy & capi-capi… Hehehe I guarantee you all have a good laughing right from beginning of the movie until the end~ and the ending was so sweet too…:D

Forgetting Sarah Marshall's Trailer:

The Other Boleyn Girl:
Another 10/10 rated movie!!! This film was based on a novel which has the same title by British Author Philippa Gregory. This movie was acted by Natalie Portman (Anne Boleyn), Scarlet Johansson (Mary Boleyn) & Eric Bana (King Henry VIII of England).


This movie is almost a true story, all about a romanticized account of the life of the 16th-century aristocrat, Mary Boleyn, who was the sister of Anne Boleyn and one-time mistress of King Henry VIII.

Here's the summary:
King Henry already had his Queen (Catherine of Aragon) but she was unable to bear him a living son. So the ambitious men help their King by selecting a mistress for him to give him a son. Firstly they chose Anne Boleyn because she was older than Mary, unmarried & mored educated. But somehow, King Henry accidently got hurt during a hunting trip which was indirectly caused by Anne. So they have Mary (who's already married) nursed him instead & the King started to like her & decided her to be his mistress.

You see, this is one twisted story because Anne was so jealous of Mary whom was able to captured the King's heart that she would do anything to get Henry by her side despite of her own sister who had just given birth to a boy (fathered by the King himself). She also made the king promised to her never to bed or speak to Mary again & made him divorced with the Queen of England as well...

Yeah, Anne Boleyn was a very bad, bad, bad person indeed... but of course her marriage with Henry wasn't as happy as she thought & being a Queen wasn't as easy as she hoped for. She was expected to give birth to a son, but instead she had a daughter & named her Elizabeth. The King once again was very upset & hoping her to get him a son next time. When Anne got pregnant again, unfortunately this time, she had a miscarriage. She was so terrified & unable to tell the King the truth about it. So she was desperate & tried to persuade his brother, George Boleyn, to impregnate her. When the King knew about the incest, he was very angry & immediately sent them off for execution.

So Anne did became the Queen of England but for a short period of time. While her sister, Mary looked after the baby Elizabeth & she turned out to be the a suitable heir of England & reigned as Queen Elizabeth I.

The Other Boleyn Girl's Trailer:





I think i spoiled too much here already.. HAHAHA
But you guys have to watch this movie!!!
Very interesting to know how the Royals, Kings, Queens, Mistresses, Duchess, Duke, bla bla bla behaved long time ago in Europe...
It's full of surprising bah~
Haha..

Bah i have to end here abruptly because my sister just texted me & she's picking me up in about an hour..
Going to the hospital again..
Gah~

Bah cheers everyone~
Have a good day :D

Ps: Please do watch all these movies.. i promise you, you'll love it :D

Fantastic week in the forest...

Hello everyone 大家好...

During a recent brief reunion with my high school classmates, I was given a new nickname and I pretty much agreed with it. They nicknamed me 'Miss M.I.A'. Sounds nice huh? But what does it stands for? M.I.A. actually stands for 'Missing In Action'. Pretty pathetic huh? How I wish there are more than 24 hours in a day *sigh*

Remember my last post? I know it was ages ago though *erm... hehe...* My small mammal project actually started last Friday. And earlier today was the last day for Sample 1 of the trapping process. Here's a brief account of what happened each day in the forest.


Note: 'We' here means Syidah and I as we are working together in both sites.


Ok here goes...


12th July - Trapping Day 1


All the traps were previously baited with banana the previous afternoon and on this morning was our first day of checking for any animals caught during the night before. Dr. Charles came along with us as it was our first day. Basically guide us and help us identify the animals caught.

So we went into the transect line with sky-high spirit checking the traps and the result were amazing. We caught quite a lot of squirrels as well as different species of rats. As we were walking inner into the forest checking traps, all of the sudden, Syidah looked as if she was about to burst out of her skin. Trying her best to control her excitement, she whispered to me and Dr. Charles as we were a few feet behind her.

She whispered: "Dr. Charles, Dr. Charles, we caught a civet!! We caught a civet!!"

I rushed to her side and saw this arboreal trap hanging upside down with something quite big in it. It was a civet alright. Both of us were so excited and it seems like we were about to jump through the roof! Er... I mean the canopy... no roof in the forest lah...*hahaha...* We were having a difficult time controlling our excitement as screaming in the forest is strictly forbidden.

Despite us behaving like two crazy girls, Dr. Charles however did not show whatsoever emotion of excitement. He made his way slowly towards us and merely said: "I heard you..." Well of course, he must have seen civets hundreds of times already *hahaha...* It was the Small-toothed Palm Civet (Arctogalidia trivirgata).

But that wasn't all, as Dr. Charles were busy photographing the civet and I was trying my best to hold the cage despite the civet's constant snaring with its sharp canines, Syidah spotted another cage nearby where inside that cage wasn't our usual squirrels or rats. It was another civet!! It was a baby civet!! And it has the cutest face ever!! Mother civet and baby caught! Tell me... how exciting can a day be?

But sadly, as I was weighing the baby civet, the back door of the cage was faulty and the baby civet escaped and all I could do was just stared at it *sniff*. Photographing opportunities all down the drain *sniff*.

Miss BB said: "You won't catch it again..." And deep down inside us we knew that true as predators usually do not get recaptured *sigh*.



13th July - Trapping Day 2


We were on our own this day and got quite a few recaptured squirrels and rats. Nothing exciting in the morning.

Went into the forest again to re-bait the traps with fresh bananas at 2pm as well as to check if any animals were trapped. I came upon a squirrel in an arboreal trap on a liana. It was the Plantain Squirrel (Callosciurus notatus). While waiting for Syidah to reach where I was standing, I decided to feed the squirrel with the old bananas I've collected. It was so cute holding the banana with its little forearms and standing upright on its hindlimbs! I was enjoying every second looking at it feed.

After Syidah came and recorded this particular squirrel, she moved further down the transect line as it was my job to release the squirrel. After having the experience of releasing quite a few of this species of squirrel, I've learned that it will scurry away from me with maximum speed.

Without thinking too much, I release the lock and open the cage door. The squirrel did not scurried away as I expected. Instead, it walked out of the cage turn around and looked at me! Guess what it did next? It jumped on my head and onto a branch behind me!! That really caught me by surprise! I instinctively let out a yelp and squatted down. I could feel it's claw on my scalp.

Syidah, upon hearing my yelp a few feet away, turn around and ask me "Kenapa?!"

I said: "It jumped on my head!!"

And then we were both laughing our heads off...



14th July - Trapping Day 3


We were doing the usual checking of traps in the morning. Came upon this trap on the ground placed alongside a log. What we saw inside the trap made us so excited and for two whole minutes, we were screaming as silently as possible and slapping each other high-five softly!!

Inside the cage was the same mother civet we caught two days ago!! Yes!! Believe it!! We knew it was the same one because it was marked. We approached it slowly and secured the trap door with wire. We did not dare release it yet because there are traps that we've not checked yet.

After checking all the traps, we came back to where the civet was. Now, releasing it... *take a deep breath* I walked towards the cage and too off the wire lock. Syidah was videoing the whole process a few feet away. I took another deep breath. The civet was snaring at me. Another deep breath. I slowly and carefully slide the trap door lock up, did not even pull open the cage door, and flew the heck away from the cage! I never knew I could move so fast!

When I look back at the cage again, the civet was still inside the cage! Then slowly it push the door open and walked out of the cage. It turn around and looked at the two of us briefly before scurrying away into the forest. Pheeww~



15th July - Trapping Day 4


Did our usual checking and found this really adorable and cute treeshrew. It was a lot smaller than our usual Painted Treeshrew (Tupaia picta) and was generally brown. Dr. Charles and Miss BB came to the field today. And afraid of mis-identifying this particular treeshrew, we brought it out of the forest, put it in Syidah's car and took it for a ride! We drove to another trapping site to meet up with Dr. Charles and Miss BB. It was the Slender Treeshrew (Tupaia gracilis). After our lunch break, we brought it for another ride and release it at the same location where we found it. How cool can a treeshrew get? *hehehe....*



16th July - Trapping Day 5


First of all, a big thank you to Andery and Bon for helping us out in the field today. Thank you! It was a normal day, not much happenings in the forest...



17th July - Trapping Day 6


Went into the forest and did our usual rounds checking the traps. As I walked further into the forest, I came across an arboreal cage with a lifeless lump of fur in it. Hoping it wasn't what I had in mind, I walked up to it and saw a lifeless Callosciurus notatus! I screamed, although I know I wasn't supposed to, "Syidah, 6C mati!!"

Syidah flew beside me and checked the animal by gently poking it with a stick. It moved so slightly and opened its eyes! "OMG! It's alive! It's so weak!" There was a bee-like thingy that was buzzing near it, stupid bee-like thingy stinging the poor squirrel *Hmph!* I looked into its eyes and keep telling it "Please don't die, you cannot die, you cannot die..."

We brought it out from the forest and gave it banana. It wasn't eating. We gave it water and it was lapping the water so fast. Then it regained a bit of strength and started feeding on the banana. We let it rest and recuperate. We were so glad its eating again and recovering. Pheeww~

In the afternoon, it had fully recovered and was live and kickin. We brought it back to the forest and release it. Mission: Rescue C. notatus, Mission Successful! It did not die on us! It recovered! Yay~



18th July - Trapping Day 7


Guess what Syidah brought today? You'll never get it right *hahaha...* She brought with her four fishing rods and and container of earthworm she dug behind her house this morning! This fishing addict had spend her entire week in the forest and was about to go crazy! *hahaha...*

We finished our morning round earlier than usual because Syidah was accompanied by Majeedah and I was accompanied by my *ehem*. So we easily finish checking two different sites by splitting up. Since we had lots of time to kill while waiting to shut the trap this afternoon, our forest guide, Angus, brought us to a small streamlet nearby to fish. My *ehem* also bought two fishing rods and some bugs for baits. Another fishing addict. It was an enjoyable afternoon chatting and laughing.



So that's basically what I've been doing for the past week. We'll start trapping again on 23rd July so until then... Hope there'll be more exciting things to report... *crossing fingers...toes as well*


Goodnight everyone 大家晚安... Sleep tight and sweet dreams...

人要知福，惜福，再造福。。。
Realize you are blessed, cherish these blessings, then continue to cultivate more blessings...

Do you guys miss me?

Hey guys, sorry for being MIA (Missing In Action) without posting / blogging anything for while!!! Some of you people must be wondering where have I been this past 2 months right? I know you all mish me…. =D No? Yes? Admit it lah!!!! I know u guys miss me!!! haha

Well, to be frank there’s been lot of ups & downs going on with my life lately… I’m pretty darn sure its like one of those many scenes from family dramas / soap operas that you all watch on television & make you cry all the way the entire drama / movie… yeah its a very sad, sad, sad one.. sigh.. I can’t tell you guys everything about it but briefly, one of them is that, my dad is currently being hospitalized for a month plus already & he won’t be able to come out anytime soon yet... So I’ve been busy taking care of my family, doing all the house chores, taking turns looking after my dad, etc..

Dont worry guys, i'll be doing just fine here :D

Next semester is coming soon, to be exact it starts on 4th August, meaning that there's only 16 days left to relax away from uni~~

I am so not enjoying my long break this year, what about you guys?

Anyway, I’ll just post up the pictures & summarizes what I had been doing for the this 2 months in my next post okay peeps? I'm too tired to blog any further right now..

Goodnight all & sleepwell~

Poison

Tadi I had a talk with my youngest sister (in form 5 now) and she told me about her friends wanting to go overseas to further their studies. My sis told them that she wants to study in Brunei saja - UBD. They were like, "Kenapaaa? Masuk UBD nanti keluar jadi cigu jua tu!".

Deja vu~ Remember the so kesian girl who dissed about UBD in her blog. Heh :p

Overseas and UBD? Difference in available courses and different environment saja.. And oh, the very tough coursework in UBD.. It's up to you really, where you want to study. Just don't say bad things about UBD.

And what's so bad being teachers? Siapa tah kan mengajar if semua inda mau jadi teachers?! Teaching is one of the pekerjaan yang paling mulia.. Kan? :) Inda plang ku kan suruh kamu semua jadi cigu.. Ikut minat masing2 lah.. Jangan kan ngucap saja ani wah..

Sigh.. Kids today.. Their minds are easily poisoned by everything they hear.. Cubatah fikir sendiri ah.. Hmm..

Oh, aku jumpa Hanie tadi. We were planning to see Dr. Edwards... Tapikan... He's on leave until the 30th July. Just our luck~ We talked a bit lah.. Rindu ku c-Cath.. :( Cath!! Saturday ko free??

Btw, the new UBD intake list is out already. Congratulations to those yang dapat masuk UBD~ Especially for my sister, CONGRATS!!

Small Mammal Project Starts!

Hello everyone 大家好…

Once again, please forgive me for my disappearance 请愿谅我好吗？I’ve been so busy and will still be busy and will not stop being busy for a long time *hehehe…* 真的，真的，真的好忙. I’m starting my 4^th year project and my long vacation had just ended *sniff*. I’m doing a project on small mammals 小动物and will be spending most of my time, morning until dusk, in the forest.

Basically my work is setting traps along a transect line in the forest, baiting the traps with bananas 香蕉, checking for any trapped animals every morning and re-baiting the traps every afternoon. Trapped animals are identified, sexed, weigh, marked and released. It is pretty hectic getting dirty, sweaty, scratches, cuts, bites, bruises (especially on the ass) from slipping etc. The most difficult part will have to be holding in your urine while working in the forest 要小便真的很困难! Despite all the above negative side of things, here is a list of the positive points that greatly counter the negatives.

1. Having Dr. Joseph K. Charles as my project supervisor. It is because of him that I’ve gained countless experiences in the field. I’ve learned so much from him not only in theories but as well as in terms of practical 真的学习很多东西. I sincerely thank him for all the great opportunities he had given me 谢谢您.

2. Having Miss Ang Bee Biaw as my project advisor. She is like our ‘big sis’ 我们的大姐 constantly checking on us, giving us advices, planning our schedules in great details, basically being there for us all the time, whenever and wherever. I can never thank her enough. Love you, BB!

3. Learning about the different species of small mammals. Yea yea I know, you can easily read up in a book somewhere or watch TV to get this kind of information. But being with these forest-dwelling animals in such close proximity while carefully observing them with your very own eyes is a totally different experience 跟森林里的动物在一起的感觉真的很奇妙. Believe it!

4. Every day is a new and exciting day full of the essence of surprise 每一天都是精彩的. Every time I walk through the forest along the transect line checking traps, a million questions run through my head. What species are caught today? Recaptured animals? New animals? New species? Is there something moving in that trap over there? What is it? Did it hurt itself? Is it still alive? What is that sound? Blah…blah…blah…

5. Better stamina and health. This project involves a lot of physical work and it’s a fantastic way to increase stamina for a better health 可以练出一个健康的身体. Increased stamina also means I can train better in Taekwondo and hopefully someday I can reach my ‘8 km in an hour’ milestone! Hahaha… *dreaming~* Hope I can also shed off my tons of fats doing this project 希望还可以减肥吧！ Hahaha…

6. Great way to save up 可以省钱耶. This project requires most of my time in the forest which means you won’t be seeing me shopping around in The Mall or Hua Ho buying all sorts of unnecessary stuffs 因为没时间乱花钱 and I also won’t be spending all my money eating out every day. Which means my wallet can stay fat and plump! Yippee~

I think that’s it for today 今天就到这里. Need to retreat early because I’m going to the field tomorrow. But I have so many exciting stories yet to tell *giddy* in future posts 但是我还有很多精彩的故事. Until then peeps…

P.S: Miladies, ganas jua arah warning column ah? Which one of you menses ani eh? *hehehe...*

Goodnight everyone 大家晚安… Sleep tight and sweet dreams…

人最难看见的，就是自己。。。

To see clearly within ourselves is the most difficult thing to do…

Die already!

Try and listen to this song carefully..

Slahau lagu ah! I heard it on the radio last night and I was laughing so hard.. all by myself~ Hahaha The lyrics!! Why all the 'mati'?? It's not a bad song though.. Sedih actually.. Tapi.. Hehehe I can't stand from laughing everytime I listen to the first verse.. :p

Karma

What goes around comes around..

Evil doings are repaid by evil; and good things happen to those who do good.

And yet, the people here still do evil or bad things to other people. By bad, I mean really-really-really BAD.. Things that threaten the lives of other people..

Why? Because of pure hatred and jealousy.. I guess some people can't stand seeing others to be happy.. And these crazy jealous people will do anything in their power to make the lives of others to be miserable.. Some are desperate enough to hire someone to continue making people suffer..

It sickens me when I hear stories about such things happening to my family and friends.. Karma wah! People normally don't think of the consequences of doing such terrible things. You know very well that there will be consequences if you have wronged someone or something..

Tapi, everything happens for a reason.. So, if you're in the suffering end, you have to be patient and never lose your faith. But if you're in the evil doing end, stop before it gets worse and go seek for help from Him. Wallahua'lam..

Sigh..

I know you probably don't understand what I'm talking about..

Entah apa yang ku merepek ani.. Aku pun inda tau..

*clearing things off my mind*

The Black Swan

I was surfing randomly yesterday and stumbled upon this article from the New Scientist. Enjoy reading! :)

Life is unpredictable - get used to it
01 July 2006
NewScientist.com news service
Michael Bond

When did you first notice the way humans deal with unpredictable events?
I was brought up in Lebanon, where we always recreate memories, revise experiences and read more into them than necessary. During the war there, when I was 15, I wanted to be a philosopher. While I was hiding in basements I read William Shirer's Berlin Diary: The journal of a foreign correspondent 1934 to 1941. It made me realise three things about the people around me: that they were always predicting (wrongly) that the war was going to be "solved" soon; that they seemed confident about their estimates for the future even though crazy events were happening all the time; and that after the crazy events had happened, people acted as if they were predictable. I realised that you can find an infinity of narratives to fit your data.

Why do we all fall into this trap?
Our brains operate on autopilot most of the time. In a primitive environment, that was fine, since most random variables we encountered then were what I call "type one" randomness: things like the throw of a die, a person's height or weight, or the number of calories we consume on a particular day - the randomness disappears under averaging and is measurable and wellbehaved. The variation in the calories we consume each day disappears when you add up the calories we consume over time; the throws of a die will average out. Today, however, most random variables we encounter are "type two" randomness: socioeconomic variables that can impact the total in a disproportionate way. I call these unpredictable ones "black swans".

Can you give an example?
Individual wealth is a good example. Bill Gates's contribution to the wealth of the world is so huge you cannot discount it. The first world war was "type two" randomness - no one could have predicted its magnitude the year before it happened. The same goes for the invention of the computer. There was not much "type two" randomness in the primitive environments in which we developed our intuitions. The few extreme events we did encounter were not repetitive enough for us to learn from them, and they were often so catastrophic that they terminated the populations exposed to them. Sadly science has not been too interested in this type of randomness. Scientists do not want to tell you what you don't know, and it devalues the field of statistics, given that the statistics we use are based on "type one" randomness.

How bad we are at predicting "black swans"?
Our track record is quite dire. Look at the net, computers, lasers. The internet was designed as a military system, not for chat rooms. The person who first marketed computers didn't think he would sell more than five. The laser was designed by a physicist who had no idea how it might be used. You can't even forecast something that would affect us tomorrow - revolutions, wars, epidemics, political changes, economic variables.

But don't people make predictions based on history all the time?
As well as our ability to concoct empirically flawed narratives to explain past events, there are biases in history that we don't seem to be aware of and that make us overestimate the causal links between events: for example, when you see only the winners and not the losers. When you look at the fossil record, you see only the species that left a fossil. You cannot make a generalisation of all species just from fossils - you have totake into account the species that left none. History has a lot of hidden pockets. You can't take it any more seriously than a visit to a museum.

Does science suffer from this?
Yes, because of the way research gets published. Research that yields no result does not make it into print. The problem is that a finding of absence and an absence of findings get mixed together. Science as a discipline is very sceptical, but scientists are not necessarily so. It is exactly like financial markets. Markets can be extremely rational while dominated by entirely irrational individuals. It leads to overconfidence.

What are the consequences of this overconfidence?
It's massively dangerous. Let me give you an example. I was invited to give a talk on prediction to civil servants at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington DC. I told them that their social security forecasts were dangerous to society. At the end of the session a gentleman from the audience wanted to speak to me privately. He showed me oil price forecasts by his department for 25 years ahead: in January 2004 they estimated it would be $27 a barrel; six months later they revised it to $74 a barrel. If you had to double your forecast six months after making it, wouldn't you realise something is wrong with your forecasting? So we're depending on flimsy government forecasts. And there's a track record to our prediction failure: think of someone making an inflation forecast in Germany in 1913. My point is that a forecast is irrelevant unless you have an error rate on it. But if this happened, these people would realise there was no point in forecasting, because their error rate would be so monstrous. It wouldn't be a problem if we knew our limits in prediction. People are naturally over-optimistic, which is good because it helps us get by in the world. It's fine for individuals and corporations, but it's very bad for societies and governments when policies are set by such wildly unfounded predictions.

So successful forecasting is just luck?
Yes, and you need a lot of luck to forecast things accurately. There are enough people predicting crazy events for one of them to get it right. After a crazy event, such as 9/11, you will always find someone who predicted it out of luck, but they'll think they predicted it by skill.

Should we change the way we view the world?
We cannot help being fooled by randomness. We're too impressionable. I was in London when the second terrorist attack happened and I automatically behaved like anyone else, ducking for safety. Then I realised that my biggest danger in London came from my jet lag and being used to traffic driving on the other side of the road. We should worry about preventable sources of death. I should worry more about how much sugar I put in my tea than whether I am going to be hit by terrorists. The key is not to try to stop being a fool, but to be aware of when it matters not to be a fool. If you can't do anything about a problem, it's a waste of time analysing it.

From issue 2558 of New Scientist magazine, 01 July 2006, page 50

From Meha,

The Black Swan..

Hahahaha

Belated greetings...

Hello everyone 大家好…

I truly apologize for not updating anything for the past few days. So so Sorry… Been so busy for the past few days… or was I just lazy…? *cough* So to make up for it, I’m doing an early bird post today *hehehe…* Am I off the hook? *bambi eyes*

03/07/2008

Happy Birthday Qilah! 生日快乐

Sorry Erra and Hanie... I cropped you gurls outta the pic... And it's for Qilah! Hehe...

Sorry I didn’t greet you on your Birthday… I remembered but… My hand phone is acting real stupid these days… A sign of getting a new one…? *hehehe…* *with Bambi eyes...'Daddy...'* Anyways a Happy belated Birthday to you! Good Luck for your observations. Mish you!! *hugs*

The whole team from the expedition met up in the Bio Lab to unpack the stuffs as well as to transfer all the pictures from the recent expedition. Total = 21 GB!! That’s a lot of pics! And I was laughing my butt off while going through the pics and videos… *hahaha…*

04/07/2008

Happy Silk Anniversary (4 years) to beloved Sze Sze jie jie and Rahim ko ko!

An anniversary is a time to celebrate the joys of today, the memories of yesterday, and the hopes of tomorrow ~ Author Unknown

Woke up at 5.45am yesterday and guess where am I going? I’m going to the field! We went to Bang Nalud, Tutong to check out three transect lines for small mammals project students, me being one of them. You must think that I must be sick of all the walking in the forest and getting all sweaty after the expedition. I myself think I’m crazy too. But guess what? I’m back in the field again in less than a week’s time and with the same people from the expedition!

In fact, the team from the expedition had met up three times already after coming back from the expedition! I seriously think that we are all so used to each other’s accompany during the expedition and had acquired an addiction to it. *hahaha…* We should be sick of seeing each other faces already by now but on the contrary, we miss each other’s company more than anything! Well at least that’s how I feel…

Went for Taekwondo training at Menglait Sports Complex last night after making a short stop home for a shower from fieldwork in Tutong earlier on. I miss training so much and had sparring sessions. Now I not only have mosquitoes and sandfly bites on my arms and legs but also blue-black marks from knocking bones! *hahaha...* Came home at about 10pm and I was so tired... Pengsan lah~ but it was a fun and productive day!

And tonight the team from the expedition will be meeting up again for Salwa’s farewell party at the residence of Dr. Joseph Charles. Salwa will be leaving Brunei very soon to Australia to continue her Masters. We will be missing you so much, especially when we go to the field!! Thank you for all your guidance and advices regarding small mammals work, I really appreciate it… *hugs*

Salwa and Syidah 'meng-e-teh' at Hasbullah, Tutong before fieldwork

P.S: I’m still working on the posts regarding the expedition k. Sorry. By the way miladies, I cut my bangs... And Laurence was like 'Macam Mongolian... Hahaha...' Does it look really cali?

Mongolian??

And I'm hitting the gym now... Bye peeps... Take care *mwuahz*

人性之美，莫过於诚；人性之贵，莫过於信。。。
(The beauty of humanity lies in honesty, the value of humanity lies in faith...)

I'm back!!

Hello everyone 大家好...

Guess what? I actually survived and made it back to Brunei from the Lanjak-Entimau Scientific Expedition! I was in the jungle in the middle of Borneo for the past two weeks where there is no reception or any sort of communication to the outside world... living with hundred plus or so strangers apart from my team. And here I am back to civilization to deliver more of my nonsense so be prepare... (hehehehe...)

This banner was hanging in Sibu Airport to welcome participants of the Expedition

So much had happened during the Expedition I don't even know where to start... Here's a list of things that I acquired during the expedition:

1. An amazing experience for my first ever expedition – Million thanks to Dr. Joseph Charles for choosing me to join the team and billion thanks to Dato Hamdillah for personally funded our entire trip.

The best lecturer in the whole world, Dr. Joseph K. Charles!

2. Newly adopted siblings - BB, Faye, Salwa, Syidah, Bon, Metis, Azman & Andery – Thank you all so much for the support, care and team spirit you guys had given me throughout the expedition (especially when enduring the bitch in me *apologetic*)

BB, the best 'big sis' ever!

Faye, the most observant of us all and a professional photographer too!

Salwa, the cutest bird enthusiast ever!

Syidah, never fail to entice others with her beauty even in the middle of nowhere.

Bon, couldn't bear parting with electronic gadgets.

Metis and the mantis!

Azman, the shy and yet so funny one.

Andery, the youngest of us all.

3. A bronze tan - My worst ever sunburn! I'm now probably 5 shades darker than I used to be... *sniff*

Four burnt arms!

4. Hundreds of mosquito and sand fly bite marks on my legs and arms - And they itch like hell! I couldn't stop scratching! And yes I look diseased, all the scratching and bleeding! I wonder when the marks will disappear and I don’t think it’ll be anytime soon *sigh*

5. Leech bite marks – Yes! My first ever encounter with a leech! And best of all, it was documented (hehehe...)

I got leech-ed on my heel!

6. Track suits with tear and holes in them – That’s what you’ll get walking through forest trails with high rattan density with horrible thorny stems and a barbed wire fence which you need to cross over quite often.

7. Better stamina and better developed leg muscles – That’s from the 100+ stair steps per trip made from the dining area to the hostel (where we reside).

8. A strong dislike towards rice, sardines, pumpkin and salted fish – The meals (lunch and dinner) served everyday for 2 weeks consist of those mentioned. I don’t think anyone of us can take it anymore (hahaha...).

9. Encountered many different species of rats and birds that I've never seen before *giddy* - The best part!


I'll stop here for now regarding the Expedition... If anyone wants to know more about the Expedition, I'll be more than happy to fill in the details because I seriously need help on where to start.



Back to civilization... The next day after returning back from Sibu, the team met up for lunch in Escapade, Gadong. Oh how I miss sushi... how I miss sitting in a proper air-conditioned restaurant and eating what I love to eat... Yummy~

This is what you get after being tucked away from good food for so long.

Went to UBD after lunch and received my result slip. We are probably the last UBDians to find out about our results (hahaha...) My grades were OK but I could've done better. I tell myself this every semester (hahaha...) My coursework pulls my grades down a little though... (hehehe...) because of the common disease known as laziness!

Showed my *ehem* my result slip and he congratulated me for improving a grade and said he'll give me a reward. And guess what he bought me today...

My new Adidas CC Daroga Woman (BND 79.90)

Thank you so much my Love *mwuah* Woohoo~ I'm so going to the gym tomorrow!


Goodnight everyone 大家晚安... Sleep tight and sweet dreams...

心量大福報就大。。。
(The greater our generosity, the greater our blessings...)